B-modes: what's next

The signal of gravitational waves from inflation is the holy grail of cosmology. As is well known, at the end of a quest for the holy grail there is always the Taunting Frenchman....  This is also the fate of the BICEP quest for primordial B-mode polarization imprinted in the Cosmic Microwave Background by the gravitational waves.  We've already known, since many months, that the high intensity of the galactic dust foreground does not allow BICEP2 to unequivocally detect the primordial B-mode signal. The only open question was how strong limits on the parameter r - the tensor-to-scalar ratio of primordial fluctuations - can be set. This is the main result of the recent paper that combines data from the BICEP2, Keck Array, and Planck instruments. BICEP2 and Keck are orders of magnitude more sensitive than Planck to CMB polarization fluctuations. However, they made measurements only at one frequency of 150 GhZ where the CMB signal is large. Planck, on the other hand, can contribute  measurements at higher frequencies where the galactic dust dominates, which allows them to map out the foregrounds in the window observed by BICEP. Cross-correlating the Planck and BICEP maps allows one to subtract the dust component, and extract the constraints on the parameter r. The limit quoted by BICEP and Planck,  r < 0.12, is however worse than  r < 0.11 from Planck's analysis of temperature fluctuations. This still leaves a lot of room for the primordial B-mode signal hiding in the CMB.  

So the BICEP2 saga is definitely over, but the search for the primordial B-modes is not.  The lesson we learned is that single frequency instruments like BICEP2 are not good in view of large galactic foregrounds. The road ahead is then clear: build more precise multi-frequency instruments, such that foregrounds can be subtracted. While we will not send a new CMB satellite observatory anytime soon, there are literally dozens of ground based and balloon CMB experiments already running or coming online in the near future. In particular, the BICEP program continues, with Keck Array running at other frequencies, and the more precise BICEP3 telescope to be completed this year. Furthermore, the SPIDER balloon experiment just completed the first Antarctica flight early this year, with a two-frequency instrument on board. Hence, better limits on r are expected already this year. See the snapshots below, borrowed from these slides, for a compilation of upcoming experiments.

Impressive, isn't it? These experiments should be soon sensitive to r~0.01, and in the long run to r~0.001. Of course, there is no guarantee of a detection. If the energy scale of inflation is just a little below 10^16 GeV, then we will never observe the signal of gravitational waves. Thus, the success of this enterprise crucially depends on Nature being kind. However the high stakes make  these searches worthwhile. A discovery, would surely count among the greatest scientific breakthrough of 21st century. Better limits, on the other hand, will exclude some simple models of inflation.  For example, single-field inflation with a quadratic potential is already under pressure. Other interesting models, such as natural inflation, may go under the knife soon. 

For quantitative estimates of future experiments' sensitivity to r, see this paper.